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Turkish Lira – massively oversold against the US Dollar

The $USDTRY pair appears to be extremely overbought on longer time frames, which in other terms means that the Turkish Lira is massively oversold against the Greenback.

On the six-month time frame this overbought condition is accompanied by a shooting star candle, which is a strong indication that the uptrend should stall (for the least) for a few more semesters.

Although overbought conditions can continue for longer, it is also observed on shorter time frames such as the quarterly scale and there is therefore a strong probability that the USDTRY pair should be heading lower for a minor correction at least.

On the monthly time frame, as long as the price does not break above the descending resistance line the most probable outcome is for the price to reach into the rising 20 periods average (presently at 3.256).

It is also to be considered that holding long positions in USDTRY is a very bad idea as it carries strongly negative interest rates (as the following calculation example shows), which constitutes an additional incentive against being long on this pair:

I opened a short position at 3.54 USD/TRY with a stop-loss order in the 3.6 area.
Should it be taken out I will reassess the chart to sell higher again.

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  1. […] previous posts I mentioned the probability for a longer term trend reversal in the USDTRY and EURTRY pairs to the downside. Therefore it is less about the Euro or the Greenback turning […]
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