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EURTRY – Something must yield!

In a previous post I mentioned the extremely overbought condition of the $USDTRY pair.

The situation is not any different regarding the $EURTRY pair.

Therefore it appears that the turkish Lira should be close to ending its multi-year decline since August 2012 (bottom left of the chart) and is on the verge or recovering some of its past luster and regaining strength for a major corrective move at least.

I am not aware of any TRY index and the best strategy is possibly to buy the Lira against different currencies.

As mentioned an extreme overbought or  oversold condition can hold for longer than investors can usually suffer but if the monthly candle is confirmed by the close of the period it would constitute a very clear bearish signal on the EURTRY pair and a watershed decline could possibly follow.

I am short #EURTRY and #USDTRY as something must yield, and for the time being the Turkish Lira is yielding much higher interest rates compared to most major currencies making long #TRY bets attractive as interest carry trades.

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  1. […] previous posts I mentioned the probability for a longer term trend reversal in the USDTRY and EURTRY pairs to the downside. Therefore it is less about the Euro or the Greenback turning weaker but more […]
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