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MONERO Leadership Subsiding, now heading lower

MONERO turned from strength to weakness

In a previous post published on 7 Sept 2017 the out-performance of MONERO was highlighted and we provided our readers with three possible scenarios: either to buy the breakout (that never happened), or to buy the support with a tight stop-loss and a third ‘What if’ version considering a possible breakdown:

For the ‘Buy the support’ case it was mentioned that the Stop-Loss (or else closing the position) should have been placed below the indecision candle, and this happened just two days later:

2017-09-21_XMRUSDLower

MONERO heading lower

This means the ‘What if’ scenario now applies !

MONERO now probably heading lower

MONERO’s price is now fluctuating between the boundaries of a down-trending parallel channel and the trend itself shows lower. The odds are in favor for the price to reach towards the lower channel line and if this happens it could take out the previous low and reach into the level of the initial breakout level (horizontal red line).

Scenario will get reinforced if the price takes out yesterday’s low of $93. Invalidation would happen only in case of a bounce and break out above the descending channel.

MONERO also weaker compared to ETHEREUM and BITCOIN

As per a previous analysis the apparent over-performance of MONERO vs. LITECOIN may not be the end of the story.

MONERO weaker than BITCOIN

We mentioned on 7 September the price ratio between MONERO and BITCOIN should  hold its support for MONERO’s outperformance to be confirmed:

2017-09-13_XMRBTC

MONERO / BITCOIN must hold support (6-hour chart)

After a bounce above 0.3 the price is now entrapped inside an horizontal triangle pattern and testing the same support another time after a series a 10 previous impacts. The more a support is tested the more fragile it becomes and the odds are heavily in favor of a break lower, which should then draw the price ratio significantly lower, which would confirm the inherent MONERO weakness.

2017-09-21_XMRXBTLower

MONERO heading lower vs. BITCOIN

As long as the price ratio does not bounce above the upper triangle boundary BITCOIN should be preferred over MONERO for any long position.

MONERO’s weakness vs. ETHEREUM now confirmed

Whereas weakness of MONERO compared with BITCOIN still requires confirmation, it is now yielding against ETHEREUM by breaking below what now appears to have been a consolidation pattern within a down trend and with no sign of relief.

2017-09-21_XMRETHLower

MONERO compared with ETHEREUM broke lower

ETHEREUM is clearly to be preferred over MONERO until further indication of a possible trend reversal, which is far from obvious for the time being.

This confirmed weakness can serve as a leading indicator of lower prices coming forward for MONERO.

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