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Bitcoin, Like the Fool on the Hill

The Fool on the Hill

As mentioned before:

anticipating a corrective move of the Bitcoin price has made a fool of anyone including myself

The Fool on the Hill, The Beatles:

And nobody seems to like him
They can tell what he wants to do
And he never shows his feelings
But the fool on the hill
Sees the sun going down

Bitcoin breaking out higher

On 12 October 2017 we saw the Bitcoin move higher coming when it broke above $5,000:

2017-10-12-kraken-btcusd

Calling the Top

Then harder and harder we tried calling the top.

Satisfaction, The Rolling Stones:

‘Cause I try and I try and I try and I try
I can’t get no, I can’t get no

The monthly oversold condition was first highlighted on 5 November 2017:

What if you missed the Bitcoin rally?

This was when the Bitcoin price reached $7,500 and we expected it to correct in the $6,000 price area at a minimum, and it did not happen:

2017-11-05_BTCUTM

When the Bitcoin price started to correct from $8,000 we expected a much deeper correction in the $3,000 price area, and it did not happen:

Then on 29 November 2017 following a new record to $11,500 we saw again a corrective move down to $9,000:

and even more dramatically into the $8,000 price zone, but again it did not happen.

Then again on 3 December 2017 we tried it again with a negative daily divergence that never materialized:

Finally on 11 December 2017, we saw a broadening formation that became invalid when the Bitcoin price finally broke above $18,000:

Finally we nailed it…

At this stage – and that was on 16 December 2017 – we warned that:

The upper daily volatility band around $19,600 is the next obvious target to be watched carefully.

Bitcoin moved up to… $19,660 before violently reversing down with a 43% drop to $11,205 to precisely hit the lower volatility boundary:

2017-12-22_XBTDaily

Bitcoin Daily Price Chart

Still expecting more downside

At this stage, please note that the monthly oversold pressure (framed on the monthly price chart here below) has NOT been released and we still expect more downside for the reasons explained in our previous post, so that we take the risk to propose the following scenario:

2017-12-22_BitcoinUTMOverbought

Bitcoin Monthly Price Chart


We expect the Bitcoin price to correct down to $7,000, possibly even lower to $4,000.

Let Bitcoin again make a fool out of your Charts And Trends analyst…

And nobody seems to like him
They can tell what he wants to do
And he never shows his feelings
But the fool on the hill
Sees the sun going down

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