The unpredictable crash
Unrealistic statements such as on one side “Bitcoin will reach USD 1 Million” or on the other side “Nobody could predict this happening” or “it’s a fool’s errand to predict the Bitcoin crash” have populated cryptocurrency forums and social networks lately.
Nobody could predict… Well! Not exactly.
We warned all the way up from $7,000 on that this move was not sustainable and would end badly as summarized in our previous Bitcoin analysis:
Warning About More Downside Coming
Then the Bitcoin price started to recover but then we warned again about degrading technicals and more downside risk coming, first on Twitter:
Daily close will be decisive for #bitcoin. Rising support violated. Close below would have bearish implications as proposed: https://t.co/FBdQZ7j0Wz$BTC $XBT $BTCUSD $XBTUSD #blockchain pic.twitter.com/YLaMMF5TM5
— Blockchain & Exponential Charts & Mega Trends (@rochnickols) January 11, 2018
and then in our new Charts section:
Double Whammy for Bitcoin
Then if correcting swiftly from $19,660 to $11,160 was not enough we saw a double whammy coming and predicted:
This was January 15th, and our actual target – the 20-week moving average – was reached only two days later, somewhat exceeding our $10,000 estimate with a low at $9,222:
Bitcoin, Buy One, Get Two
Then Bitcoin collapsed from $19,666 to $9,222, a price discount of 54%.
Question is if this is really a good deal at this price?
Bitcoin Still is In The Doldrums
May be, may be not because as a matter of fact and as presented in the weekly price chart above the weekly volatility is so large that it does not allow for an immediate recovery to the previous price high.
Let’s took another look at it:
The combination of a very strong resistance at the $15,500 price level combined with the MADC negative cross-over and the bubble-shaped volatility envelop suggests that another leg down may be coming during the next few weeks.
But on the short term the Bitcoin price appears to be recovering towards this target area and we will be following up closely on how the price will react at this level:
Only a decisive weekly close above $16,000 could invalidate the proposed deeper corrective pathway we have previously proposed on December 22nd already: