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ADAUSD Weekly Price Chart

Technically Cardano (calculated as ADAUSD) is a loosing investment proposition from its inception. The long upper spikes end of 2017 and early 2018 signal massive selling power. The subsequent recovery failed against the moving average in April this year and the pair is now capped by the declining 7-period moving average (purple line) after breaking below a medium term support level (rising orange line). There should be no bear market respite until the lower volatility band has been reached, which also corresponds to the all-time low from six months ago and which should be expected to be violated if even temporarily.

ADAUSDT Daily Price Chart

Following a temporary swift bounce yesterday ADAUSDT has been thrown back below a broken and declining short term support level. The pair is heavily capped by all averages and indicators showing lower, the closest resistance being the 7-period moving average (purple line). Despite an oversold condition (circled) there is not yet any positive divergence between the price and the MACD indicator (blue dotted line).

Scenario

Cardano is in a stronger bearish trend compared with other major cryptocurrencies in a general crypto bear market and there is a good chance we will see the $0.0782 all-time low from end of last year in the coming few weeks, possibly in the form of an abrupt spike. On the daily time frame oversold can become more oversold and this condition should be responsible for violent spikes without calling the predominant bearish trend into question.

Invalidation

A daily close above $0.015 followed by a weekly close above $0.2 are necessary conditions to negate the powerful bear case.

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