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By the start of the month of July the fast 7-period monthly average is turning down and now hard pressing on the price of major cryptocurrencies, which may cause significant damage in the coming few months to complete our Bitcoin bubble popping scenario.

The following price charts show that despite a lot of room separating the fast moving average from the price it should act as a repulsive magnet forcing the price to lower lows on the four cryptocoins with the largest capitalization as of July 1st 2018, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and Bitcoin Cash.

Monthly Bitcoin Price in USD

Monthly Ethereum Price in USD

Monthly Ripple Price in USD

Monthly Bitcoin Cash Price in USD

This is not a technical set up we want to buy and we prefer to wait for a capitulation event in the second half of the year before getting back in the cryptocurrency markets.

End-of-day edit

After publishing the above analysis earlier in the day I scanned the price chart of the first 25 cryptocurrencies by market cap and all but Binance Coin (BNBUSDT) are below  resistance, which may not mean that BNB will not end up as well breaking down in a general crypto rout.

2018-07-Cryptomarketcap

As of today there are 1,597 cryptocurrencies according to Coinmarketcap, almost 250 of which with no recorded market cap and only 18 with a market cap higher than one billion of US dollar. There may be no space or business models for such a large number of crypto currencies with the crypto coin yard filling up rapidly.  With our scenario of more downside to come the carnage should continue and many more crypto coins should see their market cap evaporating.

2018-07-01_CryptoMarketCapMoreThanOneBillionUSD

There will be time enough after the purge to identify those most promising concepts and business models more conducive to long term investment, with a timing estimate towards the end of the year.

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